39 On the other hand

Given the painful transformation of the U.S. economy, Americans ought to be saving like crazy and buying nothing they don’t need. Some are, but it’s not clear yet if Americans as a whole will save more over the long term or go back to spending nearly everything they have. The savings rate has crept up to about 5 percent, but that’s still lower than the long-term average and far lower than you might expect after a collapse like the one we’ve endured. If savings continue to go up–a prudent move for most households–consumer spending will come down, leaving a hole in the growth of our gross domestic product, with little else to fill it. So hopes for a vigorous rebound rest on spendthrift consumers being as materialistic as ever. Now there’s a strong foundation for success.

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